2025 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets by proven simulation: This 5-way football parlay could return 25-1

The pressure starts on Day 1 for the Cincinnati Bengals when they travel to Cleveland to open the 2025 NFL regular season on Sunday. Cincinnati failed to make the playoffs last year despite a near-MVP year by quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals, who closed 2024 by winning their final five games, will face a Cleveland Browns team that named Joe Flacco their Week 1 starter. The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites, but Burrow is just 3-5 in his career versus Cleveland. Should you trust the Bengals to cover with your Week 1 NFL parlay picks, and how should you play that total, which stands at 47.5?

Aaron Rodgers faces his former team when the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to take on the New York Jets in Week 1. According to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, the Steelers are 2.5-point favorites on the road, while the over/under for total points scored is 38.5, making it the only game with a total of less than 40. Which team has value to include in Week 1 NFL bets, and which side of the NFL odds should you target? Before locking in any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL pickssince its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL bettingpicks at  Sportsbooksand on betting sitescould have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its sports betting picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of nearly 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLineand new users can also target theDraftKings promo codewhich offers $300 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

SPORTS TODAY Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Washington Commanders (-6, 45.5) to cover against the New York Giants. Washington reached the NFC Championship Game last season. The Commanders had won seven consecutive games going into that game behind Jayden Daniels, now in his second season. Daniels was dominant in 2024. He completed 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. In a 45-31 divisional round win over the Detroit Lions, Daniels completed 22 of 31 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions.

After some drama involving his contract, top receiver Terry McLaurin now has a new deal as well, putting him position to be in the lineup for the opener. The Commanders won both meetings last season, and the model has them covering in more than 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. See which other NFL parlay picks to make hereand bet the Commanders to cover here:

SPORTS TODAY How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including backing an underdog that it says will not only cover, but win outright. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL best bets and NFL parlay at SportsLine.

What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which NFL matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on an 31-15 run on top-rated picks, and find out.