Bears vs. Commanders prediction: Can Caleb Williams strike back in NFC rematch with Jayden Daniels?

When the Chicago Bears met the Washington Commanders in the 2024 NFL season, fans of both sides were treated to a stunner: Bears fans lamented that Caleb Williams‘ late-game comeback efforts were for naught, while Commanders fans heralded Jayden Daniels a sort of magical hero after the quarterback launched a picture-perfect Hail Mary for a walk-off touchdown.

Now, after much ado, it’s time for their anticipated rematch. Williams has a new partner in coach Ben Johnsonwho’s opened his first season atop Chicago’s staff on a 2-2 stretch and is eyeing a third straight victory. Daniels, meanwhile, just returned from a knee sprain in Week 5 to lead Washington past the Los Angeles Chargers. When he’s healthy, the Commanders are still viewed as one of the NFC’s top contenders, even with fellow standouts like Terry McLaur nursing their own injuries.

Can Williams exact his revenge against the Commanders after getting a full week of rest on Chicago’s bye? Or is Washington primed to inflict more pain upon the Bears with a home victory to close Week 6 in prime time? Either way, this is must-see TV.

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Here’s everything you need to know to tune in, plus keys to the matchup:

• Date: Monday, Oct. 13 |Time:8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Maryland)
• TV: ABC | Stream:Fubo(Try for free)
• Follow:CBS Sports App
• Odds:Commanders -5.5; O/U 49.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

SPORTS TODAY Key questions

• Who can step up to aid Jayden Daniels’ passing attack? Washington’s top wideout, Terry McLaurin, will miss this matchup while recovering from a quad injury. So, too, will fellow receiver Noah Brownthe man who hauled in Daniels’ improbable Hail Mary to beat the Bears last season. Even Deebo Samuelthe top remaining pass catcher, isn’t fully healthy while battling a heel issue. That might leave aging tight end Zach Ertz as Daniels’ most trusted outlet through the air.
• Will the Bears sell out to stop the run? If the Commanders are shorthanded at pass catcher, it’s possible Chicago will go all in on trying to crowd the line and slow Washington’s vaunted rushing attack. It’s a risky proposition no matter how you slice it, because with Daniels at the helm, the Commanders are always liable to break one loose; they lead the NFL in rushing with 155 yards per game. Making matters worse: The Bears rank 31st against the run, giving up almost 165 yards per contest.
• Can Chicago get anything going on the ground? Not only are the Bears struggling to contain the run under the guidance of defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, but they’re also failing to establish a reliable ground game of their own. D’Andre Swift is averaging just 3.3 yards per tote, and even with Caleb Williams’ scrambling, the Bears are mustering 3.8 yards per carry as a team. We know from his days in Detroit that Ben Johnson likes to call a balanced attack. He’s still searching for it in Chi-Town.

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SPORTS TODAY X factor to watch

Jayden Daniels may be the face of the Commanders’ offense thanks to both his arm and legs, but Washington’s rushing attack has remained fearsome in large part due to the emergence of “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, the undrafted rookie who parlayed preseason stardom into a lead role for Kliff Kingsbury. He still cedes some carries to Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. in Washington’s backfield, but he’s easily the most explosive of the bunch, averaging 6.6 yards per touch with four scores and a team-leading 17 first-down carries. After hitting 111 yards in Week 5, he appears primed for one of his biggest opportunities yet.

SPORTS TODAY Commanders vs. Bears prediction, pick

Injuries are nothing to sneeze at, especially when they decimate the top of your pass catching corps. But we saw on Sunday with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that a game-changing quarterback can overcome the challenge of depleted weaponry. Another week removed from his knee sprain, Jayden Daniels feels entirely up to that challenge. Especially when considering he’ll be up against one of the NFL’s most porous run defenses, which will also be without veteran interior defender Grady Jarrett (knee).

Will Caleb Williams be motivated to erase the sting of last year’s walk-off defeat at the hands of the Commanders? Sure. Will former Washington pass rusher Montez Sweat help Dennis Allen’s defense keep things reasonably close? Perhaps. But Ben Johnson’s Bears still feel like a work in progress, whereas the Commanders — even on an off day or without a fully healthy arsenal — register a bit more reliable. This should be a gritty back-and-forth brawl, but in the end, we can’t help but ride with the group that did it before.

Pick: Commanders 26, Bears 23 | Bears +5.5, Under 49.5