College Football Playoff scenarios: Paths for Miami, Texas, Michigan, Vanderbilt to make 2025 CFP bracket

In the spirit of hope and teams on the College Football Playoff bubble outside of the selection committee’s current top 10, all paths to placement in the bracket begin with rivalry week victories for MiamiVanderbiltTexas and Michigan. The Hurricanes and Wolverines are the only squads within that group still in contention for an auto-bid as potential conference champions, albeit slim.

None of these aforementioned top-20 teams control their own destiny and need the chaos route to unfold to be in the mix. During a season of parity, however, who’s to say that doesn’t happen this week?

No. 16 Texas hosts unbeaten SEC frontrunner No. 3 Texas A&M on Friday night, while No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Michigan and No. 12 Miami vs. No. 22 Pittsburgh kick off at noon ET Saturday, giving way to No. 14 Vanderbilt vs. No. 19 Tennessee in the afternoon. By Saturday evening, we’ll know how many of these bubbles have burst and where things stand in the playoff conversation.

Let’s get into best-case scenarios and paths for teams on the bubble to make the playoff.

Unlike at-large hopefuls Vanderbilt or Texas, the Hurricanes can still get to their conference championship game with a shot at a potential auto-bid, but they’re going to need assistance this weekend.

• A win over Pittsburgh coupled with losses by Virginia (to Virginia Tech) and SMU (to California) clinches an appearance in the ACC title game. Then, a win in that one on Dec. 6 would push Miami to, at worst, the No. 11 seed in the final bracket.
• If the unlikely ACC Championship Game scenario does not come to fruition for the Hurricanes, a win over Pittsburgh coupled with three losses from the following grouping — (to LSU), Our Lady (at Stanford), Alabama (at Auburn), BYU (to UCF), Utah (at Kansas) — would be enough to warrant an at-large berth. This is where the head-to-head win over the Fighting Irish, for the first time this season, could come into play.
• If Miami fails to win the ACC, the Hurricanes need to get to No. 10 in the final rankings to garner the “last team in” designation and there’s currently two teams ahead of them for that — BYU and Alabama.

SPORTS TODAY Vanderbilt

As terrific as Diego Pavia and the Commodores have been this season, the road losses to Alabama and Texas will likely keep them out of the playoff unless there’s chaos involving the handful of teams ahead of them on the bubble.

• If Vanderbilt squashes Tennessee and adds another ranked win to its season total, they would need losses from Utah, Alabama and BYU to have a legitimate shot at appearing toward the front end of the “last team in” conversation. Like Miami, Vanderbilt needs to get to No. 10 in the rankings to reach the bracket since the Nos. 11 and 12 are going to conference champions. It would boost Vanderbilt’s chances if Miami beats Pitt and somehow reaches the ACC Championship Game and wins.
• We don’t think it would happen, but there’s a chance the committee would rank Texas higher than Vanderbilt should both win this weekend despite the Longhorns finishing 9-3 and the Commodores 10-2. That’s due to Texas beating Vanderbilt earlier this month and holding a 24-point lead in the contest entering the fourth quarter.

SPORTS TODAY Texas

Anyone think Texas regrets scheduling Ohio State this season? That opening loss coupled with the road gaffe at Florida is why the Longhorns are on the outside looking in with no real path to reach the bracket. As the preseason No. 1, missing out on a 12-team playoff following consecutive semifinals appearances is a bitter pill to swallow on the Forty Acres.

• If Texas beats Texas A&M and disrupts the SEC Championship Game picture this weekend, Steve Sarkisian will improve his record with the Longhorns to2-5 against top-6 opponents. That’ll provide the committee with another data point involving Texas — a third ranked win — but it’s likely not enough after the 25-point loss at Georgia this month tanked the Longhorns’ stock in the top 25.
• If Texas beats Texas A&M, Tennessee beats Vanderbilt, Auburn beats Alabama, Pitt beats Miami, Kansas beats Utah and UCF beats BYU, there’s a chance to get the No. 10 seed. The rest of rivalry weekend would need to go chalk, but a Stanford win over Notre Dame would help, too. Unfortunately, there’s not going to be a three-loss team in the playoff this season unless Alabama beats Auburn then loses the SEC Championship Game.

SPORTS TODAY Michigan

A win this weekend over the top-ranked and unbeaten Buckeyes would be college football’s single-most impressive feat of the season and would give the committee something to chew on when stacked against other potential 10-2 finishers, namely Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Utah, Miami and others.

• A win over Ohio State coupled with an Oregon loss at Washington put the Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship Game and represents a bid-stealing opportunity of sorts for what we project will be a fifth SEC team.
• If Michigan fails to play for a Big Ten title but beats the Buckeyes, that’s going to hold serious weight during the committee’s final meeting. Michigan’s lone losses came to ranked Oklahoma and USC on the road, but the Wolverines would need to jump more than a half-dozen spots in the at-large conversation to get into the bracket. We think they would with a win over Ohio State.
• Oklahoma’s the only team in the at-large grouping the Wolverines could not pass with a win over Ohio State if the Sooners beat LSU this weekend by virtue of a head-to-head result from September. That leaves Notre Dame, Alabama, Utah, BYU, Ole MissUtah and Vanderbilt as the teams Michigan would be compared to — and potentially leap. Losses by several of those teams this weekend would certainly help Michigan’s case and make it easier on the committee.