Advantage Arsenal? Absolutely – but there could be more twists in this chaotic title race

The Athletic has live coverage of the Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match. 

The bare facts are that Arsenal are five points clear at the top of the Premier League with three games to play, while Manchester City have one game in hand.

Arsenal are champions-elect, then?

Nope. Not a bit of it.

If this season has taught us nothing else, it’s that nothing is guaranteed with even the best two teams in the division.

And nothing summed that up better than City’s 3-3 draw with Everton on Monday. For an hour, they looked in control. Maybe not completely dominant, but well on their way to a relatively routine win, the sort they have sauntered to countless times in years gone by, as hopeful challengers watched on from afar, their optimism draining away by the second.

Then everything collapsed over 13 strange minutes, starting with a bizarre mistake by Marc Guehi to donate Thierno Barry his first goal, and suddenly they were 3-1 down.

They must be in a slightly confusing place, psychologically, having pulled it back to 3-3. It was, as Pep Guardiola said afterwards, better than a defeat and the mood will always be lighter when you’ve scored a 97th-minute equaliser. But they have ceded the advantage in the title race to Arsenal in a thoroughly avoidable way.

For them, it will be frustrating at best. For the rest of us, it’s the latest example of why this is such a hugely entertaining scramble for the Premier League trophy.

There’s a difference between this title race and those in recent seasons.

This one is perfect for the neutral, in that it’s between two brilliant and closely-matched teams, who nonetheless have just enough flaws — tactical, physical, mental; take your pick — to provide just enough jeopardy. You can just as easily see both throwing in a calamitous defeat in these last weeks as winning all their remaining games.

Over the past few seasons, we haven’t had that. Liverpool’s two title wins were processions, clear from a long way out that they would be champions. In the two before last, Arsenal pushed City close but it was always clear Guardiola’s team were superior, pulsing with that sense they could just turn themselves into a remorseless winning machine when they needed to.

When Liverpool and Manchester City were slugging it out, it was still an exciting spectacle but they were both so relentlessly perfect that you couldn’t really see either of them losing. This was especially true in 2018-19, when they finished on 98 and 97 points and didn’t even draw a game in the last two months of the season.

The season before that City won it by 19 points. Before that, Chelsea rarely looked in any danger. The wattage of Leicester City’s miracle in 2016 outshone the fact that they ultimately won it by 10 points.

This time, though, it’s different. These are clearly the best two teams in the division, but they are both capable of erring significantly. Arsenal can freeze as they did against Bournemouth and make winning a game look like pushing soup up a hill. City can lose their minds for 15 minutes and throw away a game they looked in control of, as they did against Everton. They’ve both done it before, and there’s every chance they will both do it again before this season is over.

Even Arsenal’s clear advantage points to a possible way they could stumble. During his post-game interview with Sky Sports, Guardiola smiled that ‘I would rather be anywhere else than here’ smile and noted that “it’s not in our hands. Before it was, but not now.” Which is simultaneously a basic recitation of the facts and, if you want to read more into it, an indication that the pressure is now on Arsenal.

That is something that has been a problem. It might be a coincidence that they produced their most relaxed performance in some time, beating Fulham 3-0 at the weekend, when the advantage had seemingly shifted towards City. For a brief time, they could plausibly think of themselves as the underdogs, which must have lifted a little of that pressure for a team that hasn’t won the title in 22 years. They don’t have that now.

On Sunday, Arsenal face West Ham United, in the bottom three and coming off a 3-0 defeat by Brentford. All form, sense and logic point to a straightforward win for Mikel Arteta’s side. But would you be surprised if they made a mess of it?

Will Guardiola or Arteta be the title-winning manager this season? (Catherine Ivill – AMA/Getty Images)

Equally, the only team City have lost to since the middle of January is Real Madrid. It’s Brentford at the weekend, but could they quite easily drop points carelessly again? Absolutely they could.

Arsenal are five points clear and even if City win their game in hand (home to Crystal Palace, surely as close to a nailed-on three points as you’ll see for the rest of this season), they still have a two-point cushion. They have a better goal difference. Their remaining games are much easier than City’s. If you just looked at those facts, having not watched the Premier League this season, you’d say they have it in the bag. But presumably you have watched the Premier League this season… so don’t fall into that trap.

It is most certainly advantage Arsenal. But if this season has taught us nothing else, that could change extremely quickly.