The Republicans who control Florida’s Legislature on Tuesday will take up a new map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to give the GOP an edge in four seats now held by Democrats – in what is likely the final maneuver in the coast-to-coast redistricting battle that has raged for months between the political parties.
The proposal targets a Tampa-area district held by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor as well as an Orlando-area district held by Rep. Darren Soto. It also appears to redraw South Florida districts now represented by Democrats for Republican gain.
Florida Republicans currently control 20 of the state’s US House seats. DeSantis’ plan is aimed at leaving Democrats with just four.
Within hours of its release, Democrats vowed legal action. Redistricting experts warned of overreach that could end up backfiring on Republicans if a blue wave washes over November’s midterm elections.
Given the stronger-than-typical performance of Democrats in recent elections, University of Florida redistricting expert Michael McDonald said DeSantis’ proposal “is probably a plus-two or plus-three map” for the GOP.
“But it could backfire gloriously if it’s just a bloodbath everywhere” for Republicans, he added.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries responded to DeSantis in a statement Monday: “See you in Court.”
Jeffries later told reporters on Capitol Hill that he believes Democrats could pick up anywhere “between three and five additional seats” if November’s turnout in the state mirrors that seen in the 2018 midterms or the 2020 presidential election.
“The DeSantis Dummymander is going nowhere,” he said, using a pejorative term for a gerrymander that backfires on the party in control.
Matthew Isbell, a Democratic strategist in Florida who specializes in voting data, said the DeSantis map is considerably more challenging to the party’s 2026 prospects than Jeffries’ optimistic projections, which don’t seem to account for the state’s rapid population growth or the sharp rightward turn the state has experienced in recent years.
In 2018, Democrats held a registration advantage; today, Republicans outnumber them by about 1.5 million voters. DeSantis triumphed in the 2018 governor’s race by just 0.4 percentage points. In 2022, he notched a nearly 20-point victory.
“I’m not saying we’re destined for just four seats, but it’s going to be very tough,” Isbell said. “Holding onto eight seats would be a very good result for Democrats.”
President Donald Trump kicked off the redistricting fight last year when Texas drew new lines at his behest. California Democrats quickly countered with their own map. And just last week, Virginia voters approved a referendum that could give Democrats better chances at four US House seats in the state – although legal wrangling continues over the process lawmakers there used to put the map before voters.
Florida likely represents the last batch of US House seats Republicans can target through redistricting in the 2026 cycle. Candidates face a June 12 deadline to qualify for the state’s August primary.
Florida’s congressional delegation had initially been worried about any map that sought to gain more than three seats, with some members anxious about Democrats’ overperformance in special elections earlier this year. But the early assessment from one House GOP campaign operative was that the map should not endanger any GOP incumbents and that they could have a serious chance of picking up three or four seats.
At least four Democrats from Tampa to Fort Lauderdale now face big decisions about where — or whether — to run if GOP legislators successfully overhaul their current seats. That includes Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz, whose seats were effectively drawn together.
Moskowitz told CNN on Monday, “Look, I’m running for reelection. There’s three seats I could potentially run in. And so we’re analyzing it.”
In a letter to lawmakers, DeSantis’ team argued that population changes in the state since the 2020 census and a pending US Supreme Court decision in a redistricting case out of Louisiana justified the state redrawing its maps, although the high court has yet to render judgment in that case.
Any redistricting in Florida is expected to face legal challenges. The so-called Fair Districts Amendment – or FDA – to the state’s constitution approved by voters in 2010, imposes restrictions on partisan gerrymandering.
But the state’s seven-member Supreme Court – stacked with six DeSantis appointees – has already signaled its willingness to upend the FDA. Last year, in a legal challenge against the state’s existing congressional map drawn by DeSantis in 2022, the court struck down a provision in the amendment that guards against diminishing the voting power of racial minorities in redistricting.
The ruling handed the governor a significant victory and has emboldened him to push to further diminish the FDA. In the letter to legislators, DeSantis’ general counsel, David Axelman, argued that the Fair Districts Amendment’s other provisions no longer applied once the state’s high court ruled against the race-related section.
“The FDA was sold to the voters as a package,” Axelman wrote. “There was no severability provision included in the FDA when it was presented to the voters. And because one part is unconstitutional, there’s little reason to think that voters would have approved the remaining parts by themselves.”
DeSantis’ map was released Monday, one day before the Florida Legislature opens a special session DeSantis convened in part to deal with redistricting. The governor first revealed the map on Fox News — sharing it with a network watched by many conservatives before lawmakers in his own party.
Members of the GOP supermajority in the Florida Legislature have made clear they will proceed with DeSantis’ map proposal rather than draw one of their own. They could move within days to enact it – even as some of the state’s Republican congressmen have publicly expressed concern that an aggressive redraw could put at risk GOP seats.
State Sen. Don Gaetz, a Republican who is sponsoring the legislation to enact the DeSantis map in the Florida Senate, told CNN on Monday that it’s not his job “to be concerned about any member of Congress whose lines are being affected by the governor’s proposals.”
“Members of Congress who have concerns should contact the governor,” he added. “I’m not going to be negotiating with individual members of Congress.”
Gaetz said he expected a key Senate committee to vote on the map Tuesday. Action on the Senate floor could come as early as Wednesday.
The measure will move to the Florida House once it clears the Senate. The special session is slated to end Friday.
This story has been updated with additional information.
