The Atlanta Braves take on the Miami Marlins this evening after riding the high of having yet another offensive explosive game. The Braves are now the only team in MLB left to have not lost a series yet. The Guardians were the other, and thanks to the Braves, that is no longer the case.
It is crazy to think that the Braves and Marlins are the two teams fighting for first place after what happened last season.
Grant Holmes will hope to continue his hot start to the season tonight when he faces a Marlins’ offense that is surprisingly in the top half of MLB in runs scored per game with 4.38.
Holmes has limited his opponents to a pristine 2.55 ERA so far this season while maintaining a 1.08 WHIP over 17.2 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is fourteen to eight so it is not elite, but he has limited hard contact well. His 28.6 percent hard-hit rate is good for the top 17.0 percent of all MLB pitchers. He also has an expected ERA (xERA) of 3.20 which shows that although he has been a bit lucky, he has still been very good.
His biggest weakness is when he has to face a hitter for the third time in a game. The first time he faces a hitter, they hit .091/.259/.227, the second time they hit .192/.222/.346, but the third time through they hit .214/.313/.286. An OPS .598 against him the third time through is not bad at all, but it is clear that he walks hitters more in that scenario. Holmes has been a shining light in a rotation that has been through the ringer with injuries.
Only five Marlins have faced Holmes before, but in small samples. Xaiver Edwards leads the team with seven at-bats, but has struggled to a .393 OPS. Otto Lopez and Liam Hicks each have a hit off of Holmes in two at-bats each.
Fireballer Eury Pérez has been the opposite side of the coin for the Marlins so far. He has not been able to keep runs off the board despite his fastball averaging 98.3 MPH. He had high hopes from Marlins fans after his 3.23 xERA last season, but he currently sits at a 5.056 ERA and 4.98 xERA. Despite his fastball having an elite velocity he has struggled with command and only has a chase rate of 26.4 percent overall. Hitters are also hitting the ball hard 42.9 percent of the time, which is good for bottom 35.0 percent of MLB pitchers.
Even though Pérez plays for the Marlins, no Braves hitter has more than six at-bats against him. Dominic Smith and Matt Olson lead the team in at-bats and have been successful with an OPS of .833 and .762 respectively. Drake Baldwin has four at-bats and two of those resulted in a HR, while Albies and Acuña both have a HR against him as well.
Michael Harris will also be back from paternity leave, and likely will get the start tonight.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT at Truist Park.
Game Time: Monday, April 13th, 7:15 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Ga.
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
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