This year’s Boston Marathon is shaping up to be a memorable one, not because of the elite runners or the amateurs, but because the weather may be a huge positive factor.
The sweet spot for runners would be temperatures in the 40s in the morning in Hopkinton and low to mid-50s at the finish line on Boylston Street, Boston. Ideally, you would have a brisk southwesterly wind pushing runners along. And we will likely come close to those conditions by Monday morning.
Has Boston ever seen a marathon with optimum weather for long-distance running?
Perhaps one of the most ideal Boston Marathons was in 2011 when a strong southwesterly wind propelled runners along the 26.2-mile course, literally with the wind at their backs. It’s no surprise that the elite men’s record was broken that year and still stands today, 15 years later, as we head into the 130th running of the marathon. Geoffrey Mutai of Kenya won the marathon in a record 2 hours, 3 minutes, 2 seconds.
This year we have had unusual heat this week before the marathon. In 2011, temperatures were more typical for the season.
Also this year, a frontal system is forecast to pass through the area Sunday night, putting an end to the unusual warmth and ushering in much cooler air as it descends south over Eastern Massachusetts from Canada.
The surface map from 2011 and the predicted map for this year’s Marathon, while not identical, both show high pressure in control. The biggest difference is that this year, race day will have more of an early northwest wind, so while it will not be a headwind, it will not be as strong a tailwind as 15 years ago — which ranged from 16 mph to 20 mph. This year, wind speeds are forecast to nudge above 15 mph.
2011 Marathon Day:
The 2026 Marathon Day forecast map:
Of course, we won’t know for several more days exactly how strong the winds are going to be and exactly what direction they will be coming from, but I do feel pretty confident that temperatures will be in that nearly ideal range.
Will new records be set? Time will tell.
We will be closely monitoring the weather conditions up until Marathon day on Monday, April 20. Keep up-to-date with the latest Globe forecast by signing up for our free daily Globe Weather Forecast that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each morning. for our daily Globe Weather Forecast that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning.
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