Crude oil prices are tracking for significant monthly declines — falling to around $90 per barrel — as investors become habituated to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and perhaps even price in President Trump backing off from the war.
Over the past month, futures for Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, have fallen approximately 18%, while those for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F), the US benchmark, have subsided 12%.
However, we’re still a long way from recovering the lower pre-war oil prices in the $60s and $70s. In fact, oil executives warned on Thursday that inventory pressures are likely to push prices higher going into the summer.
“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Exxon senior vice president Neil Chapman said at an investor conference. “I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”
Chevron CEO Michael Wirth echoed that sentiment in his own presentation.
“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,” Wirth said at Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Conference. “Over the next few weeks, we are likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”
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